by The Oklahoma City Thunder enter this season under the glare of the spotlight.
They’re not just defending champions, they’re the team to beat.
With elite efficiency, a rising core, and a schedule that doesn’t hide many pitfalls, OKC has an opportunity to set a template for consistency and dominance.
In every quarter and on every possession, they project confidence, depth, and balance.
For fans, analysts, and critics alike, the Oklahoma City Thunder are favorites, and the expectation is that they will deliver.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Are Favorites This NBA Season?
Let’s break down how their 2024 performance, upcoming schedule, star players, relative division strength, and postseason pedigree combine to justify those high expectations.
Performance in 2024/25
Last year, the Thunder executed a near-flawless campaign. They locked in a 68–14 regular season record, topping the league in point differential and tempo-adjusted metrics.
Their offense ranked among the most efficient, averaging 120.5 points per game while keeping opponents to just 107.6, and their net rating sat at +12.8, best in the NBA.
Defensively, they displayed maturity, discipline, and versatility, keeping their opponents’ points allowed near the top of the league metrics. In the postseason, OKC turned dominance into gold.
They swept Memphis in Round 1, edged Denver in a gutty seven-game series, rolled past Minnesota in five, and then vanquished the Indiana Pacers in a thrilling Game 7 to clinch the franchise’s first title in Oklahoma City.
Their path wasn’t easy, especially through Denver and Minnesota, but each step validated their regular-season strategy. That kind of sustained performance, both in margin and execution, cements their status as an elite squad.
Schedule for 2025
The 2025/26 slate gives the Thunder favorable alignments and marquee matchups that could define narrative swings.
Their regular season officially begins on October 21 at home against Houston. This early game helps set the tone before they dive into more challenging stretches.
OKC’s full schedule has already been released, revealing a calendar highlighting key tilts and the need to strategically balance back-to-backs.
One of the advantages of their schedule: relatively few brutal stretches of consecutive road games, and manageable gaps between back-to-backs.
Media previews identify some “must-watch” games, but find few traps relative to other top franchises.
Given this structure, the Thunder can lean into consistency rather than brute survival mode. That factor, a schedule without major surprises, becomes part of their edge.
If you look at the 2024/25 season and the schedule for the 2025/26 season, you can see why the Oklahoma City Thunder are favorites for the NBA crown.
Key Players to Watch
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits at the core of everything OKC does.
As league MVP in the title season, he anchors both offense and defense with poise, shot-making, and charisma.
His versatility forces defences to adjust; he can orchestrate plays, shoot off the bounce, or close with toughness.
Chet Holmgren returns as the defensive rim anchor and interior stretch threat.
His presence shifts both rebounding and shot-protection dynamics.
Even while managing injury recovery in past seasons, he showed flashes of elite rim deterrence and spacing capability.
When healthy, he gives OKC an interior two-way pillar few teams can match.
Aaron Wiggins plays a quiet but essential role. He brings energy, defense, and occasional scoring bursts off the bench or in rotation shifts.
When starters rest, Wiggins steadies his pace and contributes in hustle moments.
OKC’s depth in 2024 included strong bench inputs, and Wiggins is almost certain to remain a rotation piece who stretches opposing schemes.
Together, this trio forms a mix of star power, two-way impact, and role stability.
They create both headline appeal and internal balance, which is precisely what a favorite’s core needs.
Thunder’s Division is Manageable
The Thunder sit in the Northwest Division, alongside Denver, Minnesota, Utah, and Portland.
In recent seasons, Denver has emerged as the most substantial obstacle in that group, consistently producing a playoff team with star-studded weapons. But beyond Denver, OKC’s competition looks manageable.
Minnesota and Utah challenge, but neither has matched OKC’s ceiling. Portland is rebuilding.
That means OKC can afford to focus its allocations, investing more resources in top matchups, knowing the division floor is favorable.
Because the Thunder eliminated Minnesota in the 2025 Conference Finals and edged Denver in a tough series, they’ve already shown they can beat the best in their division.
With Denver as the only true heavyweight, OKC’s path to division supremacy seems less perilous than facing some other top teams in tougher divisions.
This relative margin of safety enables them to absorb adversity, injuries, fatigue, or slumps more effectively than teams entrenched in more intense competition.
Postseason Record
Consistency in the regular season is necessary, but true greatness shows up in April and beyond.
In 2025, OKC’s postseason run validated its regular-season dominance. They went 4 – 0 over Memphis, 4 – 3 over Denver, 4 – 1 over Minnesota, and 4 – 3 over Indiana.
That’s a 16 – 7 postseason record, including back-to-back Game 7 wins to close out a tough series.
Their composure under pressure stood out.
Before 2025, the Thunder’s playoff history has shown promise, but also inconsistency.
Even in seasons they fell short, they regularly secured playoff berths and put up competitive performances.
Now, with a championship in hand and so many signature wins, the narrative has shifted: they’re not just participants, they’re a team built to win.
Their deep postseason climb means they’ve already navigated the emotional and physical peaks of playoff basketball.
That experience matters, especially for younger players. The Thunder now carries a postseason blueprint, a roadmap through adversity, a swing in momentum, and high stakes into this new season.
The Signs are Good
Everything points to the Oklahoma City Thunder entering this season not just as contenders, but as the standard-bearer.
Their 2024 performance established mastery; their 2025 schedule gives structure without overwhelming peril; their core blends stardom with role reliability.
Their competition outside of Denver feels manageable, and their postseason resume proves they can raise their game when it counts.
If you’re watching this season, watching OKC is watching a team that has already earned belief. The Oklahoma City Thunder aren’t just chasing respect; they’ve earned the favorite’s tag.
*Content reflects information available as of 2025/10/02; subject to change.
